GOP

A series of miscalculations on voter turnout caused the Romney campaign to misread the polls in the final weeks of the campaign. When election results started coming in on Tuesday night, the numbers came as a shock, CBS News reports:

“There’s nothing worse than when you think you’re going to win, and you don’t,” said another adviser. “It was like a sucker punch.”

…Both wives looked stricken, and Ryan himself seemed grim. They all were thrust on that stage without understanding what had just happened.

“He was shellshocked,” one adviser said of Romney.

Romney and his campaign had gone into the evening confident they had a good path to victory, for emotional and intellectual reasons. The huge and enthusiastic crowds in swing state after swing state in recent weeks – not only for Romney but also for Paul Ryan – bolstered what they believed intellectually: that Obama would not get the kind of turnout he had in 2008.

They thought intensity and enthusiasm were on their side this time – poll after poll showed Republicans were more motivated to vote than Democrats – and that would translate into votes for Romney…

Those assumptions drove their campaign strategy: their internal polling showed them leading in key states, so they decided to make a play for a broad victory: go to places like Pennsylvania while also playing it safe in the last two weeks.

Those assessments were wrong.

What a bitter night for Romney after running for president almost non-stop for six years–and coming so close.

Indeed, what a bitter night for America.

Here at The College Fix, we believe standing for what’s right and true is always worthwhile, no matter the outcome. Liberty, freedom and opportunity, the right to life–these causes are the noble and just and worthy. In that sense, Romney, who may have worked harder than any man in history to become president, did not labor in vain.

And we who are of like mind must continue to work, and likewise do our utmost to defend those who cannot defend themselves, and to resist the attacks that, history shows, are ever being directed at human liberty.

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Presidential elections always seem more consequential than they really are. A loss feels so final, so fatal. A victory feels so much like hope. But, in the end, luckily, presidents aren’t all that powerful.

Don’t get me wrong. Elections have consequences. That seventeen trillion dollar national debt we now have is real. The loss of liberty Americans will suffer under Obama’s healthcare mandate, and the corresponding debt burden our children will carry—it’s real.

The national security threats we face abroad and at home, exacerbated by bad decisions in the White House—very real. Let’s hope Obama can handle a nuclear-armed Iran better than he did the rabble riot in Benghazi. He may get the chance to try before his second term is out.

The consequences of election 2012 are real, but the differences are on the margins. Look at the Bush years. We had a huge increase in entitlement spending with the Medicare prescription drug plan. Republicans hardly batted and eye as they voted for it. A few years later, Obama took things a step closer to a European style healthcare system. Subtly, slowly, but oh so surely, we are trading quality, choice and innovation for the illusions of security. And boy, what a price tag.

Democrats, Republicans—the direction is the same, only the pace of change differs.

In recent decades, even a large Republican-appointed majority on the Supreme Court could not achieve basic protections for the unborn in this country. And our abortion laws remain even more liberal than those in Europe. The court appointments are consequential—yes–but only, it seems, on the margins.

Real Leadership

Except, sometimes, there is something different. Every once in a while someone comes along who actually changes hearts, and changes the course of history. It’s called leadership. Not the leadership of the boardroom variety, not leadership of the committee.

I’m speaking of a different kind of leader—one who speaks to the soul of a nation. A Churchill or a Lincoln comes along, usually when he’s most needed, in a critical hour, in a moment of danger, when everything’s on the line.

That hour, in all likelihood, will come sooner to America than any of us would like. National calamity strikes once every three or four generations. It’s inevitable. Big wars. Viral epidemics. Economic collapse. Nuclear winter. Trials that could make 9/11 or Hurricane Sandy look like the easy times. Our hard days will come.

Cormac McCarthy gave us one possible view of the future in his novel, The Road. It’s a horror story more terrible than anything Hollywood ever dreamed up, mostly because it seems so plausible. Food supply, civilization, law and order—it’s all very fragile. The lesson: We’ve been very lucky so far.

The man from Massachusetts, for all his talents, was never cut out to be a game-changing leader. He’s a talented, decent man. But Romney was never going to do more than manage America’s decline. He is gifted with the ability to manage people, not to change hearts. One never got the feeling that Romney really knew what he wanted to do when he got to the White House.

I get the same feeling about the guy from Chicago. For him too, being president feels like an end unto itself. For all the hyped rhetoric we heard four years ago, all the talk of hope and change, this year Obama articulated no reason for a second term, no vision. Ask a Democrat what they want to see happen in the next four years. All you’ll hear is, “We want Obama.” It was about holding onto power, warming a chair in the oval office for four more years.

Democratic voters didn’t show up at the rallies this year. For them, it was about keeping the other guy out, not keeping their guy in. It was, as Obama said, the year of “revenge.” The president is out of ideas, and his followers feel the difference.

Obama’s Legacy

Obama’s legacy is more about symbolism than politics. He’s the antidote to the poisons of racism and slavery. Obama is the leader of a personality cult that, almost coincidentally, led to political consequences. Letting him ride free on Air Force One for eight years will be the price of washing our hands of the sins of our fathers.

Almost certainly, Obama will accomplish next to nothing for the next four years. Filibusters in the Senate, and the Republican majority in the House, will make sure of it. And even if Obama had super-majorities in Congress, I’m not sure he really knows what he’d do with it. Ultimately, that’s a good thing. His lack of vision limits the damage he’ll do.

Once in my lifetime, I’d like to see a president step down after his first term, to decline to stand for reelection, to admit, openly, that he has nothing left to contribute of any importance.

For now, inconsequence reigns supreme on Pennsylvania Avenue. My plea for Obama is this: enjoy your power, but please, do no more harm. Leave the Marxist platitudes on your bookshelf. I have numerous family members and friends who can’t find jobs and are losing their homes.

My best hope for the next four years is that Obama will play a couple hundred more rounds of golf. Out there on the fairways and greens, he’s done his best work as president.

Before long, the reign of inconsequential men will collide with some dreadful turn in human history. I’m not being pessimistic, just realistic. And when that day comes we won’t be able to afford the kinds of leaders we have now. We’ll have to find another Lincoln.

Nathan Harden’s new book, Sex & God at Yale: Porn, Political Correctness, and a Good Education Gone Bad (St. Martin’s, 2012), was recently named a New York Times Editor’s Choice Pick. He is Editor of The College Fix.

(Cross-posted from the International Business Times)

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(Image: Pete Souza for The Official White House Photostream)

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Mitt Romney was too conservative. Or was he too moderate? Does the GOP need to reach out to Latinos more or move right and energize their conservative base? Today Republicans are left pondering why they lost this election.

Democrats are in a celebratory mode, despite a looming “fiscal cliff” and serious economic promises facing the nation. Republicans, many who predicted that Mr. Romney would pull off a decisive victory, were left confused but with plenty of blame. Karl Rove on Fox News was even criticizing the station for calling Ohio too early.

Late night reversals and predictions gave the presumed “red” state of Virginia to Obama. The intensely close nature of the Florida race showed that Mr. Romney was in for a tough night.

There is evidence for those in the GOP who claim that it is not the Republican vision that was rejected by American voters, but rather the extreme on the ideological right. Democrats retained control of the Senate after a series of Tea Party inspired nominations made gaffes regarding abortion and rape. If it had not been for these nominations, more traditional Republican candidates would have won, they claim.

Steve Hayes, columnist for the Weekly Standard, disagreed and argued that it was moderation and lack of serious conservatism that was culpable for the defeat. He said the future of the GOP relied on “substantive conservatives,” like Bobby Jindal. He argued that the American public wants “people who are big thinkers and who get stuff done and people like Scott Walker, Marco Rubio…”

George Will, a conservative commentator, said on ABC News that there were now “two factions in the Republican Party”, saying that there was a libertarian group focusing on pocketbook issues while the social conservatives focus on abortion and gay marriage. Mr. Will also derided the President saying that “Obama wants to be on the Mount Rushmore of liberalism.”

Though Mr. Obama retained a sizable part of the electoral college, the nation is still starkly divided. For much of the night Mr. Romney held a lead in the nation popular vote, though it is approximately 50 % to 49% for the President now.

A changing demography of the American electorate could also be a conundrum for future Republican politicians and leaders. Whites, though breaking toward Mr. Romney, are being overruled by a growing Latino community. Other minorities including blacks also overwhelmingly support Democrats and liberal policies.

“It is going to take a long time for the Republicans to get the state of the country,” Matthew Dowd, a consultant to George W. Bush, opined.  Many in and out of the GOP echoed similar sentiments.

In election night speeches to the divided public both Mr. Romney and the incumbent struck conciliatory and bipartisan tones. Mr. Romney chided “partisan” bickering while Mr. Obama specifically said he would “sit down with Gov. Romney” to deal with big issues.

President Obama’s speech was delivered in an optimistic tone, however he laid out a liberal agenda despite the fact that nearly half the nation voted against him and his policies. He stated that citizens must not ask what government will do for them and must rely on self-governance, while also saying that we are a co-dependent family.

How the social conservatives, libertarians, and moderate Republicans mend will take a long time to see. The crucial question among the caucusing Republican lawmakers heading to Capitol Hill is which post-loss narrative will prevail? Some fear a greater shift to the center, while others warn against a turn to the right.

What is certain is that all Americans will see partisan gridlock put to the test again soon, as the debate over the “fiscal cliff” comes near.

Fix Contributor Michael Sorge is a student at Purchase College, State University of New York.

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(Image: Brendan Mruk / Wikimedia Commons)

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In 2008, Obama claimed a huge majority of the youth vote over John McCain, as he swept into office with the uplifting message of hope and change. That year, Obama led McCain among youth voters by a 34-point margin.

The latest Pew Research poll, however, shows Obama leading Romney among the youth by only half the margin of four years ago–a mere 17 points.

With this critical base of support on the wane, it just might be the youth vote that makes the difference this year.

The polls indicate that Romney is attracting support from an a larger number of young adults. And that’s good news for the GOP.

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In an interview, Ann Romney said that her husband is considering a woman as vice presidential running mate.

“We’ve been looking at that and I love that option as well,” she said. So far, Romney has been tight-lipped about his VP short list.

We’d be curious to know who the leading lady contender is: Bachmann? Rice? Haley? Who do you think should be on the short list?

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120,000 GOP voters showed up for the Iowa caucuses in 2008–a record number. But University of Iowa political science professor Timothy Hagle told ABC News that he predicts more will stay home this year.

Hagle said turnout this year will likely be lower, around 100,000 people, or about one-third of one percent of the registered Republicans in the United States.

“It’s a relatively small number of people who have a big impact,” Redlawsk said.

 

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